The problem with the term "fiscal cliff" is that it suggests an either/or scenario, which meant US politicians had to chose between driving their economy over the edge in a final act of defiance reminiscent of Thelma and Lousie, or sanity prevailing.
According to lexicographers, the term "fiscal cliff" was fist used in the US in 1957, having morphed from "fiscal precipice" in 1893, and the most recent use of the metaphor by the media meant that once 1st January 2013 passed, the global economy breathed a sigh of relief and commentators moved on.
However, it's worth noting that the deal reached between the Obama administration and Republicans hasn't ensured that recession won't follow in the US.
Rather, it represented a shuffling back from the cliff edge with the promise of $1.1 trillion of additional spending cuts in the next ten years, $85 billion of which will take place in the year from 1st March, according to The Economist.
Unsurprisingly, US economic growth will remain slow this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported last week, as gradual improvements in forces that drive the economy are offset by the effects of budgetary changes.
After an initial fall, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7.5 per cent through next year and if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7.5 per cent of the US labour force — the longest such period in the past 70 years.
Also in the CBO’s baseline projections, while deficits should continue to shrink over the next few years, they are expected to increase later in the coming decade because of the pressures of an ageing population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.
As a result, federal debt is projected to remain historically high relative to the size of the US and by 2023, if current laws remain in place, it will equal 77 per cent of GDP and be on an upward path. The Economist has gone even further and put federal debt at 87 per cent of GDP by 2023.
Meanwhile, the CBO notes that such high and rising debt would have serious negative consequences when interest rates return to more normal levels, going on to warn that the risk of a fiscal crisis would increase, during which investors would lose so much confidence in the ability of the US to manage its budget, its government would be unable to borrow at affordable rates.
Not long to wait then, until we see the further effects of the US debt mountain on foreign policy and the global economy.
With regard to foreign policy, the writing is already on the wall with the winding up of the US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq but when it comes to the global economy and emerging markets in particular, it seems to me that the knock-on effects of a rising US debt mountain have yet to be considered.
I am basing that opinion on a recent visit to South-East Asia when I felt as if I had moved back in time to re-experience a credit bubble - more on that in next month's Lead Taker.
In the meantime, we might slate our Chancellor here in the UK but it can be argued that we are actually dealing with the worst of the consequences of the financial crisis.
We may have to borrow more in the short term but can perhaps be consoled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development having this month described George Osborne's austerity measures as "appropriate”.
It seems to me that little that can be labelled "appropriate" is taking place in the US where federal debt promises to act with the dead weight of an anchor on economic growth.
With that in prospect, I can't muster my usual cheery quip to end this month's Lead Taker. Instead I can only reflect that grasping the nettle of austerity doesn't sit too comfortably with the American psyche.
Maybe Brits and other Europeans are better equipped because of our war-torn past but what's for sure is that if the US economy does have its day of reckoning with the "fiscal cliff", it won't be going over alone.


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