In recent days and weeks there has been growing talk of a looming property-market crash, and against this backdrop the Nationwide’s May house-price index published on Wednesday was surprisingly upbeat.

At 0.2%, house-price growth in May was negligible, admittedly, but the broader prognosis given by the Nationwide in its report, specifically that the market could favour sellers and ‘and exert upward pressure on price growth once again in the quarters ahead’, was out of sync with the doom-mongering of various property-market commentators.

I have to say, once or twice while scanning the news over the past week or two I’ve almost jumped behind the sofa, so terrifying have been the proclamations of a property-market collapse.

But on further reflection, and in the full light of day, you do get the feeling that a lot of the doom-mongering is being put out there by people keen to hoover up some media exposure _ and little else. Whether they even believe it themselves is neither here nor there.

Now there’s no doubt that the volatility caused by the recent stamp -duty changes on buy-to-let and second homes, coupled with the EU referendum this month, has created a hugely uncertain environment — and has made 2016 a difficult year to predict.
 
There’s no doubt, either, that affordability is a massive issue in many areas of the country, particularly here in the capital. 

But my own view is that affordability issues are being counterbalanced, to an extent, by continued low borrowing costs. Also, the perennial issue of weak supply has the potential to act as a glass floor under house prices, irrespective of what happens in the market.

Demand may not be as strong as it was, but supply also remains exceptionally weak. It’s like market forces are battling the structural laws of supply and demand.

Now there’s every possibility that the result of the EU referendum could have a material impact on house prices in the short to medium term. What happens in June could determine the fate of the market for several years to come.

But you do get the feeling that, after all the hyperbole and hysterical predictions surrounding the collapse of the property market, what ultimately happens will be relatively benign. 

Attributed to Mark Posniak, Managing Director of Dragonfly Property Finance