Industry reacts to inflation and house price drop

Industry reacts to inflation falling to 8.7% and house prices dropping to £285,000




The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 8.7% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from 10.1% in March.

The latest figures show CPI at its lowest since March 2022 (7.0%), and it’s the first time rates have fallen below 10% since August 2022 (9.9%).

The CPI including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) also fell to 7.8%, compared to 8.9% in March.

According to ONS data, the largest contributor to CPI was food and non-alcoholic beverages at 19.1%, down only slightly from 19.2% in March 2023.

Meanwhile, the latest House Price Index (HPI) data — released in tandem with the inflation figures — showed that UK average house prices rose by 4.1% in the year to March 2023.

Average house prices came in at £285,000, down from £288,000 the previous month.

Industry experts react to latest ONS inflation and HPI figures

This section will be constantly updated throughout the day — check regularly for more comments from industry experts

2:30pm

Adam Oldfield, chief revenue officer at Phoebus Software:

“Of course, there is no guarantee that this will be enough to prevent the BoE from raising interest rates again next month.

“The housing market is showing huge resilience recently and the general sentiment appears to be positive — The only fly in the ointment will be another interest rate rise.

“How lenders manage that, if they can see that inflation is going in the right direction, will be key.”

2:00pm

Charles White Thomson, CEO at Saxo UK:

“The status quo in the UK is increasingly painful and uninspiring - this should not be about celebrating falling inflation or the avoidance of a technical recession. 

“The UK continues to underperform its key counterparties and have underserved the majority and their aspirations. 

“The risk for further policy failure is real and the stakes are getting increasingly high.

“The conundrum facing the UK is more than just beating public enemy number one, or inflation, it is about defeating the high tax; low growth loop and the lovers of the status quo or managed decline.”

1:45pm

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at Fine & Country:

“Confidence is returning as inflation falls and the economic outlook brightens, and this in turn is leading to increasing activity in the property market.

“Buyers have a lot more choice than they did during the frantic months in 2021 and 2022 thanks to strengthening stock levels, which makes for a much healthier market.


“Importantly, mortgage rates haven’t moved too much since the latest increase in the base rate and this stability is helping the market put on a strong showing, as we move towards the summer.”

1:30pm

Mark Harris, chief executive at mortgage broker SPF Private Clients:

 “Inflation is moving in the right direction, although more slowly than we would want to see and it is unlikely to be enough to stave off another rate rise.

“Swap rates rose on the back of the inflation figures this morning and it is likely that more lenders will reprice their mortgages higher.

“Borrowers who are unsure as to whether to take a fixed-rate mortgage now or hold out in the hope of cheaper rates in the future should seek advice from a whole-of-market broker.”

12:00pm

Emma Cox, MD of real estate at Shawbrook:

“Rising interest rates and economic pressures have not stood in the way of many buyers or sellers’ ambitions, as the housing market shows strong resilience and house prices rise in March.

“Reports that the economic outlook isn’t as bleak as previously forecast has prompted a return in confidence and demand.

“And while buyers are likely to remain relatively cautious moving forwards, as mortgage rates remain high in line with rising interest rates, it’s encouraging to see these signs of optimism back in the market.

“The well-documented lack of supply within the rental market, could prompt professional landlords to snap up properties and expand their rental portfolios before any further price rises.

“This should help to provide an injection of quality stock, with demand currently being starved of good, available properties for renters.”

 

Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance:

“As transaction levels reduce, which is what has happened over the past year on the back of lower confidence levels fuelled by rising costs and interest rates, property prices will rise.

“We are slowly seeing signs of potential stability in rates and some reduction in inflation as promised by Sunak, which should come to a head towards the end of the year.

“This will improve confidence in the market and hopefully increase transaction levels, which should keep prices in check.”


Jatin Ondhia, CEO at Shojin:

The severity of price pressures has left little room for complacency, yet today’s long-awaited dip into single-digit figures will no doubt be met with a sigh of relief from investors.

“For the first time in eight months, evidence that a corner has been turned appears more tangible and the emergence of a more positive tone will be welcomed by many.

“There is no escaping the fact that the economy still faces a long road to recovery — with inflation figures set to stay above the Bank of England’s target for longer than anticipated — it remains to be seen whether further, tighter monetary policy may be needed.

“There might be a sense of cautious optimism, but investors should continue to assess how well placed their portfolio is to deliver on their short-, medium- and long-term goals, with the challenges of inflation and higher interest rates unlikely to dissipate this year.”

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