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US Election 2024: The specialist finance market reacts




This morning, Donald Trump won the US election 2024 gaining both the electoral and popular vote.

The incoming 47th president has promised to “end inflation and make America affordable again”, while announcing during his victory declaration speech that his time in office would bring the “golden age of America”.

Members of the specialist finance industry have given their say on what they expect for the future of the market, with Donald Trump set to return to the White House.

“Obviously it’s very early days but I would comment that Trump has stated he is there to protect America and the American economy which is one of the major reasons he has been re-elected,” said James Bloom, director at Alternative Bridging Corporation.

“He has threatened to put substantial tariffs on foreign goods including from their allies which would obviously have a detrimental effect on our economy and markets,” James continued.

He feels that while Trump’s policies could potentially be inflationary, they will be a large benefit to the US and global economy and more positive than Harris’.

“For me it’s a mixed bag and it will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the coming weeks and months.”

Leanne Ardron, director of bridging finance at Lendinvest believes that a Trump presidency could have an impact on the UK economy: "Only time will tell, but there’s an expectation that this second Trump Presidency could bring higher inflation and interest rates in the US — a move partially priced into the markets already.

“Given the US’s outsized role in global finance, this could exert upward pressure on UK interest rates, complicating the BoE’s efforts to achieve a neutral rate.

“Additionally, we could see renewed M&A momentum in the UK’s specialist lending sector, as large US investors explore opportunities in under-served UK markets, driving competition and innovation in new products.

“That said, the strength in the UK's specialist lending markets lies in its fundamentals: the rise of professional landlords, the pressing need to retrofit the UK’s aged housing stock and to build new homes to meet ambitious targets.


“World class universities, cities and healthcare systems will continue to attract investors, homeowners and renters. It is a uniquely resilient sector, and LendInvest is positioned to support these evolving dynamics.”

 

Justin Trowse, head of bridging at Allica Bank believed that the election coming to an end would bring the market a sense of certainty now that the “political hurdle” had been jumped.

“The fed has priced in a 99% chance of a rate cut between 450 and 475bps [according to Fedwatch], therefore the US real estate markets should react positively.

“Usually, whatever happens over the pond has a ripple effect on the UK — We have the MPC meeting tomorrow, so we will be watching with a keen eye, all the economic measures factored, there is credence for a cut.

“Initial signs of price growth in the UK real estate market, combined with a declining rate environment demonstrates cautious optimism for UK SMEs and property investors.”

Some industry members believed that the recent election result would have no impact on the UK specialist finance market.

Rhidian Lerwell, investment analyst at Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management, said: “We are of the view that the US election will have little impact on the UK bridge/specialist lending market specifically, we do not anticipate a major shift in our operation.

“Any market movement will likely arise from broader macroeconomic shifts following the roll-out of US economic policy.”

Kelsey Phillips, head of specialist lending at Arose Finance also gave her forecast after the Trump victory.

“In the near-term, Trump’s election victory could support further upward pressure on UK mortgage rates.

“With the BoE’s penultimate monetary policy decision of the year on Thursday, US financial markets are buoyant post Republican victory.”

However Kelsey noted the contrast with today’s decline in EURUSD and GBPUSD, saying it was a “symptom of comparative growth and productivity trajectories”.

“If Cable remains depreciated and import tariffs are imposed, the consequent inflationary pressures could ultimately support higher UK Gilt yields,” she continued.

“In that environment, we could see marginally higher mortgage rates and the BoE cutting more cautiously than previously anticipated. All eyes are on Thursday's decision."

 

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