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3.6% inflation uptick provides 'no respite' despite hopes for future base rate cuts




CPI rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to June, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to May.

On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.3% in June 2025, compared with a rise of 0.1% in June 2024.

Meanwhile, CPIH rose by 4.1% in the 12 months to June 2025, up from 4% in the 12 months to May. On a monthly basis, June saw a 0.3% increase, compared with 0.2% from the same period last year.

According to the latest data from the ONS, transport made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in annual rates for both CPIH and CPI, with housing and household services making a large downward contribution in CPIH.

Specialist finance professionals have given their reaction to the latest inflation rise.

Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, commented: “This news will provide no respite for people who are struggling with their personal finances at a time when there is widespread data suggesting Britain’s finances are in a ‘perilous’ state.

“Housing plays a pivotal role in the UK economy, and considering the UK government and the devolved administrations have set themselves ambitious housing targets, it’s important that there is strong affordability to support consumers with their housing ambitions.”

Ben Thompson, deputy CEO at Mortgage Advice Bureau, said: “A slight uptick in inflation is a reminder that the path back to target won’t be completely smooth and entirely predictable.


“While the overall outlook into next year remains downward, persistent pressures—especially in services—may give the Bank of England reason to pause before moving on rates.”

Paresh Raja, CEO at Market Financial Solutions, added: “With just over three weeks until the Bank of England’s next base rate decision, this morning’s inflation data feels like it has added significance.

“The headlines will likely be negative, and the focus from many will be on the fact that inflation is both rising slightly and still above the central bank's 2% target, but that shouldn’t rule out a base rate cut on 7th August.

“The Bank of England has cut rates while inflation was above target in the past. This moment should be no different.

“Economic growth has stagnated for two consecutive months, so it feels like the right time to stop fixating on short-term CPI trends and start prioritising policies that support recovery.

“In turn, by cutting the base rate, the Bank would give property buyers and investors the confidence they need to resume their investment plans and encourage greater activity across the property market—and across the wider economy — in the final five months of the year.”

Martyn Smith, CEO at Black & White Bridging, stated: "Rising inflation, on the heels of political uncertainty and shaken market confidence, sends another strong signal that we’re not out of the woods yet.

“With gilt yields already spiking following the chancellor’s emotional Commons appearance and the government’s welfare U-turn, today’s (16th July) figures could further drive up borrowing costs.

“For bridging lenders, the key challenge now is managing funding lines that are becoming more expensive almost by the day, while still delivering quick, competitive solutions to borrowers.”

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