The Lead Taker

Scotland and independence...the last words




I am writing this just as polls suggest for the first time that Scotland is likely to exit the Union - and having tuned in to the Andrew Marr show to hear George Osborne....

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p>I am writing this just as polls suggest for the first time that Scotland is likely to exit the Union - and having tuned in to the Andrew Marr show to hear George Osborne state emphatically that there can be no currency union with an independent Scotland. The Chancellor also made mention of closing the Faslane submarine base and referred to other "disconnections" that would be undertaken in due course.

It seems to me that in addition to the qualities outlined above, Scots have a "chip on the shoulder" when it comes to the English, as confessed by one Scottish BBC interviewee who looked to me like a wise old bird. So, my question to the Scottish independence lobby is this: "Is life with an inferiority complex worse than financial ruin?"

Economic ruin is where I believe a "Yes" vote will take Scotland because putting aside all the financial and geopolitical uncertainties, there are bound to be similarities between what happens when either people or nations separate.

Having been there and done that on a personal front I can outline with confidence some of the pitfalls. You may want a break-up to be as amicable and productive as possible but your idea of benevolence may not be the same as the other party's. Separation hurts and can have unexpected consequences.

For example, large numbers of Scots are prepared to lose political and economic influence in the name of independence but presumably would expect what remains of the Union to offer support if, for example, a dispute over territorial waters demanded a heavy presence.

But with some analysts predicting a damaging run on the pound if there is a "Yes" vote on the 18th, I can't see that Whitehall would be inclined to pitch in at no cost in an act of benevolence to an independent Scotland.

I think it might take the English in particular a while to adjust to a tartan divorce, during which time enthusiasm for Scottish well-being, goods and culture may wane considerably. In addition, there may be émigrés who miss being part of the UK. And who exactly will want to invest in a newly independent Scotland when the IMF, President of the United States, European Central Bank, President of the EU, Conservative, Liberal and Labour party leaders to name but some are pleading for the Union to be maintained?

Their arguments are, no doubt, rebuffed in Alex Salmond's manifesto. But unfortunately, despite running into hundreds of pages, his vision is far too light on economic outlook to be taken seriously.

And should Mr Salmond have a rabbit to pull out of the hat regarding the economy he will also need to manage the long-term division that exiting the Union will cause among the Scots. "Yes" and "No" voters are thought to be neck and neck at the moment and while a comparison with Ukraine would be ridiculous, just how cohesive will Scottish Society be post independence?

And how will relations prosper between England and Scotland if the English don't match up to Scottish expectations of post-divorce benevolence? Another Hadrian's Wall? Well, times have moved on but I would expect virtual walls to appear all over the place as the English lick their wounds over a Scottish "Yes" vote.

Rejection is never easy to deal with and should the Scots decide to exit the Union I reckon that once the news has sunk in there will be a resounding "sod the lot of them then" from Landsend to Berwick-on-Tweed.

I will sign off with a comment from one of Scotland's cherished sons, Niall Ferguson. To paraphrase, in an interview with Newsnight, the economic historian suggested that only a Scotsman could cast a vote that would transform his country into Belarus overnight!

So, we wait - will the heart rule the head and the Scots be the poorer for it or will the head rule the heart, allowing us to sort out our differences and maintain our position in the world.

 

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