This is an unprecedented historical event and anyone who claims to have even the faintest idea what it will mean for UK property – whether residential or commercial – is delusional.
Faced with an event of such magnitude, we can only speculate. But in my view, very little will happen at all in the short term.
The reason for this is that while – with the starting gun fired – everything is happening, the reality is that nothing is happening. Or not yet, at least.
- Will Brexit provide the 'needed' shake-up within our industry?
- Treasury hosts Brexit roundtable on financial services sector
- Should we expect a significant slowdown in the bridging sector?
Our exit from the EU will take the best part of two years and even longer if negotiations are extended (with the approval of the other EU member states).
In short, the property market, economy and markets will have time to adjust to the great schism. Any change is likely to be incremental rather than instant, and that counts for a lot: this is unlikely to be a black swan event in the form of Lehman Brothers and, closer to home, Northern Rock.
I also think that the structural issues underpinning the UK property market will mitigate the uncertainties of Brexit.
The strength of the UK economy and the glacial pace of housebuilding mean prices are unlikely to drop off a cliff and the world as we know it will not end.
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